Every four years, in the lead up to the presidential election, a new group of voters declare they will leave the country if their candidate does not get elected. According to the Google Data Editor Simon Rogers, searches for “how can I move to Canada” spiked 350 percent following March’s Super Tuesday results.
But, in the run-up to the presidential election, is there any evidence that New Yorkers will either decamp from Trump properties—this is, after all, a city where dozens of high-rise properties bear his name—or leave the city altogether? It seems unlikely.
In 2000, Director Robert Altman and Pearl Jam’s lead singer, Eddie Vedder said they would leave the country if George W. Bush won. In 2008, Tina Fey said that she would be “leaving earth” if Sarah Palin became the Vice President of the United States. This year Lena Dunham vows she will move to Vancouver, Cher and Jon Stewart will join Fey in leaving earth and Al Sharpton pledged he will move out of the country (although he assumes he will “get deported anyway”) if their Presidential candidate does not get elected.
It turns out that Robert Altman and Eddie Vedder didn’t move. Tina Fey didn’t have to. And chances are, few, if any of the current celebrities who vowed to leave this year actually will go.
Most New Yorkers don’t want to leave their neighborhood or borough, much less the country
Victor P. Corona, a sociologist at NYU, thinks New Yorkers will hold strong. “Most New Yorkers don’t want to leave their neighborhood or borough, much less the country. It reflects the divide between liberal coastal enclaves and the rest of the country. To many New Yorkers, it’s just inconceivable that a candidate like Trump would be elected. The threat of leaving is just an extension of that incredulity. But if he did win, I think more people would actually move to New York looking for a cosmopolitan haven of tolerance, diversity, and openness.”
In terms of Trump properties, the story is largely the same. Although Redfin has recorded that Trump’s buildings outside of Manhattan are suffering, losing their 6.8 percent premium over comparable luxury buildings within the past year, in Manhattan, Trump apartments continue to command top dollar. As CityRealty’s research reveals, Trump’s 2016 condos sales have pulled in an average $1,974 a square foot—that’s just over four percent more than the August Manhattan average of $1,893 a square foot. In fact, Trump's edge has remained consistent since he announced his run for office in 2015.
There is, however, one notable outlier. This summer, Keith Olbermann very publicly sold his $4 million unit in a Trump building at a loss explicitly because it was a Trump building. On July 14th, @KeithOlbermann tweeted, “I'M FREEEEEEEEE! It's no longer my @RealDonaldTrump Apartment! I got out with 90% of my money and 100% of my soul! pic.twitter.com/PRGxvn4ZI0.”
But the story doesn’t end there. Just one month after Olbermann announced his sale, the unit is back on the market. However, the the buyer, Syrian businessman Albert Nasser, denies any political motivation for his change of heart. Listing agent Harry Nasser, also Albert’s cousin, says he wants to trade the Trump pad in for a place on Central Park.
Despite the spike in “I’m out of here” chatter, most Realtors will not comment whether or not they believe people will truly move is the election does not turn out in people's favor. But a few realtors have used it to their benefit.
For example, Joanna Suhl’s firm, J & R Real Estate in Los Angeles, posted this to Instagram:
Ms. Suhl does not really believe people will sell their homes and leave the country after the election but decided to capitalize on the popular sentiment. “We teamed up with a local artist and thought it would be better and funnier than the typical realtor postcard. I think there would be a chance if one candidate became president more than the other, some people might actually leave.”
But she did observe that this election feels different than previous elections because there is such distaste for both candidates. “Both have such low favorability.”
Only time will tell if people dash to list their homes on Wednesday, November 9th. But, if Dr. Corona is right, New Yorkers will stand strong.
But she did observe that this election feels different than previous elections because there is such distaste for both candidates. “Both have such low favorability.”
Only time will tell if people dash to list their homes on Wednesday, November 9th. But, if Dr. Corona is right, New Yorkers will stand strong.
Contributing Writer
Michelle Sinclair Colman
Michelle writes children's books and also writes articles about architecture, design and real estate. Those two passions came together in Michelle's first children's book, "Urban Babies Wear Black." Michelle has a Master's degree in Sociology from the University of Minnesota and a Master's degree in the Cities Program from the London School of Economics.
6sqft delivers the latest on real estate, architecture, and design, straight from New York City.
